Prognosis of failures and faults and contingency management methods on composite airframe structures allow for the extension of vehicle health management onto the structure, which typically represents the majority weight and a large cost of both maintenance and replacement. Prognostics would allow for condition-based maintenance of airframe structures which reduces maintenance costs associated with an air vehicle. Reducing maintenance overheads and enhancing safety will be driving factors for all new aircraft concepts, including the NASA Environmentally Responsive Aviation (ERA) project, the Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) project, and airframes for hypersonic and supersonic flight. Additionally, current research aircraft such as NASA's WB-57F would benefit from the prognostics developed here to extend the life of the airframe or improve mission capability based on RUL and airframe condition assessment. Finally, space applications such as launch vehicles and payload and pressurized modules, including the ISS laboratories, would benefit from prognostic applications of composite structures in order to assess the structural capability and any damage or degradation that might endanger crew or payload. The overall commercial fitness of this prognostic algorithm is very high due to the large field of structures for which it enables condition-based maintenance and enhances design life and safety. This program will provide a contingency management system that dynamically performs decision-making based on both sensed and predictive information to carry out adaptive missions and maintenance. Targeted at composite airframes, the market opportunity for such a system is very significant for the UAV industry, as it is clear that UAVs cannot be made in the same manner as conventional, manned aircraft. Their cost of construction must be much lower, i.e., cheaper materials, less labor and fewer parts. In addition, the ability to make small, custom runs will be commercially very attractive the lead times for conventional aircraft are many years. These commercial imperatives will drive the adoption of low-cost, composite airframes constructed largely automatically. Rotorcraft such as the Sikorsky CH-53E and the upcoming CH-53K, as well as commercial aircraft such as the Boeing 777 and 787 all incorporate various levels of vehicle health management to monitor subsystems for faults and failures. Prognosis of failures and faults and contingency management on composite airframe structures allow for the extension of vehicle health management onto the structure, which typically represents the majority weight and a large cost of both maintenance and replacement. Aircraft such as Aurora's Orion long endurance aircraft would benefit from airframe prognostics, and we would push for its application both on our own platforms as well as other OEM air vehicle providers.
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