A Coupled System for Predicting SPE Fluxes, Phase I

The CCMC, located at NASA GSFC, is presently testing different space weather models to assess their applicability for eventual operational settings. STAT would represent the coupling of two preeminent modeling capabilities at CCMC (CORHEL and EMMREM) to produce physics-based model predictions of SEP fluxes. STAT would also be of significant interest to NASA SRAG, which is charged with the difficult responsibility of ensuring that the radiation exposure received by astronauts remains below established safety limits. This requires identifying periods with a high probability of no SPEs, as well as recognizing the imminent threat of an SPE. STAT can aid SRAG in this endeavor by estimating particle fluxes and dose rates for possible eruptions when a threatening active region is identified. SPEs are of concern not only to NASA, but to many government and commercial entities dependent on satellites and aircraft. For example, NOAA SWPC provides space weather information to a range of customers, for many of whom the forecasting of SPEs is a top priority. The Air Force is also interested in mitigation strategies for SPEs. The fledgling private manned launch services industry may wish to develop their own forecasting capabilities, as opposed to solely relying on government services. Once we have successfully developed STAT for NASA applications, we can address the needs of these customers as well. More »